The Indian rupee, which has depreciated 1.1 per cent so far in August, is expected to decline further on the back of a strengthening US dollar and a weakening Chinese yuan, according to a Business Standard poll of analysts. The Indian rupee hit an all-time low recently, closing at 83.15 per dollar. Five of the 10 respondents said the Indian currency might touch 83.5 per dollar in August itself, while others said the worst could be over.
Indian equity markets had a good run in the first half of calendar year 2023 (CY23), with the S&P BSE Sensex and the National Stock Exchange Nifty50 hitting fresh 52-week highs. While the Sensex scaled up to a peak 64,718, the Nifty50 hit Mt 19,189. As the markets now prepare to enter the second half (H2) of CY23, all eyes are on global central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve, as to when they will pause and pivot as regards their interest-rate cycle.
The board of directors met on Wednesday and approved Rahul Khosla as MD, effective August 18.
The military conflict around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine -- Europe's largest nuclear plant -- has raised fears of an accident worse than the Chernobyl accident in 1986.
Eurosceptics lined up to laud Greek democracy for disowning what some cast as the oligarchy
From the Sensex pack, Infosys, HCL Technologies, Infosys, NTPC, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Consultancy Services, Nestle, Tech Mahindra and Bajaj Finance were the major gainers. Power Grid, Larsen & Toubro, Maruti, Titan, HDFC Bank, Wipro, HDFC and ITC were among the laggards.
After topping it for two consecutive years, Gujarat slipped three places on the NITI Aayog's Export Preparedness Index (EPI) for 2022, as Tamil Nadu emerged as the most export-ready state, the central think tank said in its report released on Monday. In a continuing trend, coastal states were found to have the most robust export infrastructure, which officials attributed to the integration of maritime trade into the core of their economies. Maharashtra and Karnataka retained their positions -- second and third, respectively; Haryana was ranked first among landlocked states and fifth overall.
India was the world's biggest importer of Russian oil in February, exceeding China by 20 million barrels.
Gorbachev was the last leader of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR).
'We continue to believe that the global economy will narrowly avoid a recession, despite expecting the US, Canada, and most of Europe to fall into recession at some point over the next year or so.'
FIFA also announced a newly structured international calendar which its president Gianni Infantino said had been endorsed by the ECA.
Just as the US warships were heading towards the Georgian coasts in the Black Sea in the wake of four-day Caucasus war last month, Russia announced it would send a naval task force of the Northern Fleet on a tour of duty in the Atlantic Ocean and participate in joint naval drills with the Venezuelan navy in November. "Two Russian bombers have arrived in Venezuela for training exercises," Russian Defence Ministry said.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday expressed hope that G20 will draw inspiration from the vibrancy of the Indian economy and work towards bringing back stability, confidence and growth on the global landscape.
India's economy is projected to slow to 6.5 per cent in the fiscal year starting April but will remain the fastest growing major economy in the world as it fared better in dealing with the extraordinary set of challenges the globe has faced, the Economic Survey 2022-23 said on Tuesday. India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 6.5 per cent in 2023-24 compares with an estimated 7 per cent expansion in current fiscal year (April 2022 to March 2023) and 8.7 per cent in the previous year. Like the rest of the world, India too faced an extraordinary set of challenges in tightening financial conditions and supply chain disruptions from a prolonged war in Europe but "withstood them better than most economies", the annual document detailing the state of the economy said.
Equity and oil markets can breathe easy for now, as the developments in Russia are unlikely to trigger a runaway rally in crude oil prices, said analysts. India, which imports nearly 80 per cent of its crude oil requirement, has been dependent on cheap Russian oil over the past few months to keep inflation - a sore point for the equity markets - in check. For the Indian markets that are expected to remain volatile amid these developments, analysts believe, the progress of monsoon, fund flows - both foreign institutional investor (FII) and domestic - and the upcoming corporate earnings season back home remain key.
Earlier, President Vladimir Putin and his likely successor Sergei Ivanov had clearly indicated that Moscow will take asymmetrical steps to annihilate US missile defence without getting involved in the arms race.
In an emotional address, Zelenskyy invoked Britain's war-time Prime Minister Winston Churchill's words, promising to fight Russian troops in the air, sea and on the streets.
'We suggest investors with suitable risk appetite to consider allocating 40-50 per cent in large-caps, 25-30 per cent of funds in quality mid and small-caps and the rest in debt and high yield products.'
If military power is all it would take to finish the menace of an awful terrorist organisation like Hamas, how come five Israeli wars in Gaza since 2003 have failed to do so? asks Shekhar Gupta.
ITC, Sun Pharma, Maruti, M&M, Tata Motors, HCL Tech, Wipro, Infosys, HUL, Bharti Airtel and Reliance were among the major losers. Kotak Bank rose the most by 1.59 per cent, followed by IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finance and Bajaj Finserv. L&T, SBI, TCS and HDFC Bank also closed higher.
After withdrawing record funds in 2021-22, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) continued their sell-off in the last fiscal too and pulled out Rs 37,631 crore from Indian equities amid aggressive rate hikes by central banks globally. The outflow trend is likely to reverse in the current financial year since India has the best growth potential in the financial year 2023-24 (FY24), VK Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said. Market analysts believe that FPI flows in the current financial year would be decided by a host of factors, such as the US Federal Reserve's policy stance, oil prices movement and development in the geopolitical situation.
In the ancient world there is a great deal of give and take and reciprocal learning. India was an integral and important constituent of such interchanges of goods and ideas.
India's role as a leader of the global south may require it to give up its ambition to serve as a bridge between the warring halves of the international community, points out Mihir S Sharma.
'The biggest risk to the Indian markets from a 12-18-month view is that the current government does not get re-elected, or loses in a way that is not represented at all in the next central government.'
Among the Sensex firms, HCL Technologies fell the most by 2.4 per cent. IndusInd Bank (2.35 per cent), Infosys (2.28 per cent), Wipro (1.8 per cent), NTPC (1.71 per cent), Asian Paints (1.7 per cent), Tata Consultancy Services (1.36 per cent),Tech Mahindra (1.03 per cent) and SBI (1 per cent) were among the major laggards.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) infused Rs 11,630 crore in the Indian equity markets in April on the reasonable valuation of stocks and appreciation in the rupee. This came after FPIs infused a net sum of Rs 7,936 crore in equities in March, mainly driven by bulk investment in the Adani Group companies by the US-based GQG Partners. However, if one adjusts for the investments of GQG in Adani Group, the net flow was negative.
Tata Steel was the biggest gainer in the Sensex chart, rising 2.39 per cent, followed by Tata Motors, Power Grid, Reliance Industries, UltraTech Cement, NTPC, Nestle, HUL, Mahindra & Mahindra, Wipro, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Asian Paints. In contrast, Bajaj Finance, IndusInd Bank, Axis Bank, Bharti Airtel, Bajaj Finserv, ICICI Bank, Infosys and Titan were among the laggards.
Today, with China centrally seated and located, the Global South has an intriguing road ahead. Odds of it becoming a Chinese bloc in the emerging new bipolar world are higher than we'd wish them to be, observes Shekhar Gupta.
Following are the highlights of the Economic Survey 2022-23 tabled in Parliament on Tuesday
'Markets could face uncertainty in the short to medium term.' 'It would be prudent to invest in alternative asset classes, especially debt, for about a year.' 'Bank fixed deposits are offering rates as high as 9 per cent per annum and these can be used as a great hedging tool until equity markets stabilise.'
Indian policymakers are almost alone, alongside the United States, in seeking a hard and multi-sectoral global decoupling from China in the expectation that it will boost their economies, observes Mihir S Sharma.
Spain's captain Olga Carmona -- the scorer of Sunday's deciding goal -- plays for Real Madrid, where the women's team generated revenues of 1.4 million euros in the 2021/22 season, according to Deloitte. That compared with the Real Madrid men's teams revenues of 713.8 million euros in the same season.
The RBI refuses to classify a cryptocurrency as an asset since it doesn't have future cash flow and its value is always fluctuating because of speculation. There is also no consumer protection, observes Tamal Bandyopadhyay, and hence the e-rupee trial run.
Tsering described the gesture as an "innocent grandfatherly affectionate demeanour" that was followed by his "jovial prank" with a tongue.
'Frankly, India has no role to play.' 'This is a showdown between the US and NATO on one hand and Russia on the other.' 'That said, the outcome of this titanic struggle in Central Europe will remould the world order and affect India profoundly,' argues Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
India's historical focus on its continental borders has overshadowed its maritime ambitions, but that is changing quickly, notes Ajai Shukla.
The Indian rupee is expected to trade between 80 and 84 against dollar in the first three months of 2023 with support from overseas inflows though worsening current account deficit (CAD) and reduced interest rate differential between the US and India pose challenges. According to a Business Standard Poll of 10 participants, most said the rupee could gain strength in January due to foreign inflows, and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is not expected to allow the currency to depreciate ahead of the Union Budget scheduled on February 1. The rupee depreciated 10.15 per cent in 2022, its worst performance since 2013 as the war in Europe and the interest rate increase by the US Federal Reserve prompted investors to flee emerging markets.
The Reserve Bank may go for a final 25 basis points increase in the current rate hike cycle next week and a reduction would come in only by the end of third quarter of FY24, economists at Axis Bank said on Wednesday. As per media reports, RBI officials met economists on Tuesday, and the latter have suggested the central bank to go for a 25 basis points hike in key rates. Since May 2022, the RBI has hiked rates by 250 basis points, hurting borrowers and some are already concerned about loan tenors extending beyond their working lives as a result of the hikes.
Ahead of the 2023-24 Union Budget, the thinking at the top level of the central government is clear: Gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 6-6.5 per cent is a comfortable enough target for FY24 and the focus should be on fiscal consolidation to ensure that the sovereign cost of borrowing does not become prohibitively expensive in a high-interest rate environment, according to people in the know. Those aware of deliberations between the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) and the Ministry of Finance said while the Budget would look to strike a balance between infrastructure investment and welfare schemes, it is unlikely to be populist, though it will be the last full-year Budget before the 2024 Lok Sabha election. Incidentally, 6-6.5 per cent GDP growth is what the upcoming 2022-23 Economic Survey is expected to project for FY24.
The further expansion and upgrade of the Chinese military does not augur well for India, which continues to confront an increasingly belligerent China on its borders, notes former foreign secretary Shyam Saran.
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